Drought Prediction Information:
- This drought forecasting product is generated using the IAP-CIESM global coupled climate model, led by Prof. Gang Huang from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The model couples the ECHAM6.3 atmospheric component (T63L47 resolution) with the NEMO3.6 ocean component, providing comprehensive climate predictions.
- The forecast is initialized on the 1st of each month and projects 12 months ahead, with results typically available around the 15th. An ensemble approach is employed, averaging 8 perturbed members to improve reliability. Before each forecast run, the model assimilates NOAA's daily sea surface temperature (SST) data using a nudging technique to ensure realistic initial conditions.
- The forecasted CMI (Comprehensive Multiscalar Index) is derived from the model's basic output variables and standardized using the z-score method to maintain consistency with observational monitoring datasets. The forecast anomalies represent the difference between predicted values and climatology for the corresponding forecast period.
- Please note that all climate forecasts contain uncertainties. This product is intended to support research and provide reference information, and we recommend using it alongside other data sources when making decisions.
